Bitfinex, the cryptocurrency exchange, said in a report released on Monday that the uncertainty of the US election, the "Trump Trading" narrative and seasonal factors in the fourth quarter created a "perfect storm" for Bitcoin, and the market is preparing for possible turbulence. Analysts believe that given the steady growth of Bitcoin call options and favorable seasonal factors in the fourth quarter, Bitcoin may break through a historic high of $73666 after the US election.

Bitcoin will experience significant fluctuations

Bitfinex's report pointed out that due to geopolitical uncertainty, macroeconomic factors and the increasingly strong narrative of "Trump trade", the volatility of Bitcoin has increased. Last week, Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline of 6.2% before rebounding. This pullback highlights the growing impact of the upcoming U.S. presidential election on recent prices. The market generally believes that the Republican Party's victory over Bitcoin and other risky assets is beneficial. The correlation between Trump's chances of being elected and Bitcoin's upward trend has been strengthened.

On the decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket, users believe that the probability of Trump winning has risen to 66.3%, while He Jinli has dropped to 33.7%.

Bitfinex analysts continued to discuss the trading situation in the Bitcoin options market, pointing out that high implied volatility suggests that market volatility may increase in the next two weeks.

The expectation surrounding the election has stimulated a surge in option activity, with options expiring on key days before and after the election being traded at higher premiums, and implied volatility expected to peak at a daily volatility of 100 on November 8th (i.e. after election day) - indicating that the market is preparing for potential volatility

Analysts say that regardless of the outcome of the US election, Bitcoin's short-term volatility is expected to be higher than usual, while in the long run, Bitfinex continues to hold a bullish attitude towards Bitcoin.

Seasonal bullish factors

The Bitfinex report also identified favorable seasonal factors for Bitcoin. Based on past history, Bitcoin typically performs strongly in the fourth quarter after a six-month decline, with a median quarterly return of 31.34%. Analysts suggest that this strong seasonal effect, combined with record breaking open interest in options and futures, reflects market participants' optimism towards the year-end phase and may drive Bitcoin to a historic high.

The report states, "Supporting this optimism is the steady growth of call options expiring on December 27th, particularly concentrated at the strike price of $80000. As open options contracts climb to new highs, the market is showing signs of laying out for a post election rally, which could push Bitcoin closer to or even beyond its historical high of $73666

(责任编辑：商业)

• ·德阳公积金提取条件
• ·母亲生日送什么花-母亲生日送什么花好最适合
• ·QCP Capital分析美国经济数据及比特币市场动态
• ·深度分析 L1 和 L2 的经济原理、运行数据及市场表现
• ·特朗普 VS 哈里斯，美股投资者如何应对大选行情？
• ·CoinList 将于 6 月 15 日开启 Archway _ ARCH代币销售
• ·小树时代要审核多久呢？我提交了申请之后要多久才能下款？
• ·BTC价格止步于9.8万美元，但对山寨币的优势持续扩大（周末观察）
• ·比特币能买什么
• ·10月31日建信中小盘先锋股票A净值下跌0.77%，近1个月累计上涨0.82%
• ·scc是什么币
• ·10月31日华泰保兴吉年红混合发起A净值下跌1.25%，近1个月累计下跌4.47%
• ·交易所平台
• ·10月31日长盛量化红利混合A净值下跌0.32%，近1个月累计下跌4.51%
• ·2025全球区块链九大交易所排行:日赚一亿的生意都有谁 名单
• ·Trib Capital 拟为其新加密基金筹集 1 亿美元